A conservative
variant of the forecast considers the development of Russian
economy in conditions of lower dynamics in commodity prices, especially in
oil and natural gas prices. I
assumed that in the nearest future, the average price of oil will fall down to $40 a barrel and stabilize at this level throughout the forecast
period. In
these circumstances, on the background of prevailing in the last
two years inertial trends, the main macroeconomic indicators
will have in 2016 an extremely negative trend: the decline in GDP may be up to
1%, the investment slowdown will continue to deepen, the
negative dynamics in the industry and retail trade will intensify, there will be further fall in the number of population. The reduction will have lesser impact on oil and gas production, as well
as agricultural production and food production, and to the greatest extent -
the whole range of investment and services. This scenario is characterized by an increase in inflation: it could reach 8 to 9 percent. Yet, over time, the situation in the country will get stabilized.